St Leger Stakes 2016

• St Leger Stakes 2019
• St Leger Stakes 2020
• St Leger Stakes 2016 Replay
• 2020 St Leger Stakes

Italian jockey Andrea Atzeni is planning to extend his love affair with Doncaster this week with a strong book of rides at the St Leger Festival, including May Hill Stakes. The 2016 St Leger Stakes has produced a strong looking antepost favourite in Idaho. He not only has a Group 2 win in his most recent race to his credit, but also placed in both the English Derby and Irish Derby. He's finished outside the places just once in his career. His rating also checks out at 120, and at 4/6 at Paddy Power he's an option.

St Leger Stakes Background

The St Leger Stakes is Britain’s oldest classic race and takes place each September at Doncaster racecourse. The final classic of the season is open to both colts and fillies. Raced over 1 mile 6.5 furlongs. It is a supreme test of both stamina and ability for a 3-year-old racehorse.

It’s a race that has lost some of its prestige over the years it is fair to say. Indeed a very serious debate is happening right now regarding breeding in British racing. There is a significant move towards breeding horses with speed these days. Therefore races such as this one and even the Derby itself are somewhat under threat. It’s hard to imagine the Derby losing its place as the leading horse race in Britain. However, each year the St Leger becomes less attractive for owners to win in terms of overall season targets.

It is the final leg of the triple crown, but even that has become almost impossible to win now. Breeding a horse that can win the 2000 Guineas over a mile; the Derby over 12 furlongs; and the St Leger over 16.5 furlongs is an extremely difficult exercise in modern-day horse racing.

Nevertheless, it is still a race to get excited about. It is still a Classic after all.

A significant starting trend

Being a classic, it is a great race for trends. Horses usually take specific routes into classic races and it’s the same here. We start our search for the winner with one significant trend.

• 17/20: Previous Winners had recorded a minimum RPR of at least 113 in either the Great Voltigeur; Gordon Stakes; Irish or Epsom Derby or the Bahrain Trophy.

Two of the three exceptions had won a minimum 3 times that season and were late developers. We should look out of that type of profile when considering this overall trend.

The other exception is something we can draw a line through. In 2016 there was somewhat of a big shock when 22/1 outsider Harbour Law won making history for trainer Laura Mongan; who became the first female trainer to win the oldest classic. Probably the most eventful race of recent memory, it was a rousing 3 horse race at the finish as they hit the line. That didn’t tell the whole story however.

4/6F Idaho who would have passed this trend was travelling really strongly inside the last 3 furlongs. As he began to make his move, Idaho slipped slightly giving jockey Seamie Heffernan absolutely no chance to stay on. Idaho was a very solid favourite having been placed in both the Irish and Epsom Derby before taking the Great Voltigeur Stakes as 5/6F. He would very likely have won this race and we can draw a line through this year.

Trial races

Let’s have a deeper look at each of those 5 trial races this season starting with the Great Voltigeur Stakes.

• 9/20: Previous Winners had run in the Great Voltigeur Last Time Out; with a minimum RPR of at least 113 (Finishing positions 132112331)

Only one horse from this year’s Great Voltigeur meets that trend. Impressive winner, Pyledriver.

An RPR figure of 119, marks him down as an above-average Great Voltigeur runner. He must have a leading chance.

4/20: Previous Winners had run in the Gordon Stakes Last Time Out; with a minimum RPR of at least 114. (Finishing positions 1113)

Mogul was this year’s winner of the Gordon Stakes (RPR 113), but it was not a strong renewal on ratings. Furthermore, Mogul flopped next time out, finishing only third behind Pyledriver in the Great Voltigeur (RPR 109). As the 5-day declarations are confirmed, Mogul does not take his chance.

The winner of the Bahrain Trophy this year was Al Aasy. A beautifully bred Sea The Stars colt out of a Shamardal mare. He won well, but with an RPR of only 111, still had a little to find on trends. His last race in the Gordon Stakes allowed him the opportunity to do just that. However, he finished last of 6. He does not take his chance either on Saturday.

Derby horses

The final look at routes to the St Leger derives from the Derby’s. Serpentine (RPR 121), the winner of the Epsom Derby has not been seen out since. He won’t be running in the St Leger. Santiago (RPR 118) however, winner of the Irish Derby is declared; as is the second that day Tiger Moth (RPR 118).

There are two other horses coming from slightly unconventional routes that we must consider carefully. Hukum, for trainer Owen Burrows, winner of the Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury. A Group 3 over 13.5F (RPR 118). Galileo Chrome a listed 13F winner at Naas (RPR 106) for Donnacha O’Brien. Both horses are lightly raced and have won their last 3 starts.

St Leger Stakes Race Trends

15 horses were declared today at the 5-day declarations stage. Let’s consider the following trends, when removing the other 10 from the shortlist.

• 16/20: Previous Winners were a minimum Group 3 Winner. (1 exception was 2016 Harbour Law)(all 3 others placed in either the Great Voltigeur or Gordon Stakes)
• 13/14: Previous Winners officially rated at least 108. (the exception was 2016 Harbour Law) * complete ratings only go back 14 years.
• 19/20: Previous Winners Sire Index no lower than 9.4.Joint Sire Index no lower than 18.4(the exception was 2016 Harbour Law)
• 20/20: Previous Winnershad at least 1 Brilliant, 8 Classic and 16 Total dosage points
• 19/20: Previous Winners between 0.41 & 1.77 Dosage Index(the exception was 2016 Harbour Law)
• 20/20: Previous Winners between -0.39 & 0.5 C.O.D. Dosage Index

St Leger Stakes Runners

Dawn Patrol, Sunchart, Mohican Heights, Mythical & Tyson Fury are all under 108 Official Ratings. They appear to have too much to find on trends and form.

Believe in Love, rated 107 is also a little short, but a very interesting runner having won a Newmarket handicap last time out by 10 lengths, (RPR 112). That was her 4th win a row, so she needs consideration. But despite that last run, she is no more than a handicap winner and is negative on breeding trends.

One time Derby favourite

English King, the one time Derby favourite has been declared today. On breeding, he looks a nice profile fit, but he has something to prove now after his flop last time out in the Gordon Stakes. Sent off 5/4F he was beaten over 3 lengths by Mogul into 4th and is somewhat unbackable on trends after that. His Lingfield Derby Trial win remains his best run to date and he is looking more and more flattered by how he looked in that as we progress through the season.

Max Vega ran well behind Hukum in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes last time out, with jockey Harry Bentley dropping the whip just over a furlong out. In truth though, Hukum was probably going to beat him anyway and was travelling much sweeter than Max Vega before going on to win by over 2 lengths. I wouldn’t completely discount Max Vega but he is also slightly negative on breeding trends as well as obviously liked to have seen him in a more recognised recent trial.

Subjectivist 7th and Berkshire Rocco 4th did take their chance in a recognised trial, the Great Voltigeur Stakes. Neither ran well enough to be considered here though. No horse has finished outside the top 3 in that and gone on to win the St Leger in the last 20 years. Subjectivist has had another run since then, winning the Group 3 March Stakes at Goodwood over 14 furlongs by an incredible 15 lengths. He looks like he stays all day, however I just can’t ignore getting beaten by 8 lengths in the Great Voltigeur. I can’t back a horse for the St Leger on those terms.

St Leger Stakes Shortlist

Pyledriver

The surprise winner of the Group 2 King Edward VII at Royal Ascot earlier this season. Many wrote him off after he could finish only 11^th in the Derby next time out. Trainer William Muir however was convinced he would have performed better had he not been badly impeded in the race. He was somewhat proven on this point when he hacked up in the Great Voltigeur Stakes last time out. That puts him in with a huge chance here. He had also a 3lb penalty to contend with at York.

He is a very unfashionable horse with very modest breeding, failing on the trends. It all depends quite whether you believe in him or not. You can’t win the Great Voltigeur and King Edward VII by luck though.

Galileo Chrome

Galileo Chrome would be a fascinating runner for trainer Donnacha O’Brien if he does turn up this weekend. Winner of his last 3 starts, the last 2 by a combined 11 lengths. He won the Listed Yeats Stakes at Navan last time out. Impossible to know what he’s beaten in those however and with a best RPR of only 107, he has a lot to find on trends. Also yet to even race at Group level. Only just makes the breeding trends and he could be a horse that stays all day without quite enough talent or speed to win a St Leger Classic.

Tiger Moth

It’s not yet clear whether Tiger Moth will take his chance on Saturday. If he does, he will be hard to work out with just 3 runs under his belt. His second in the Irish Derby is good enough form to give him the profile to win. Except for his inexperience. No horse in the last 20 runnings has won with only 3 starts under his belt. However, he was possibly even unlucky to finish second to Santiago having run quite wide on the bend. Nice breeding profile to him and would have a good chance.

St Leger Stakes 2019

Hukum

Hukum has now won 3 of his 4 starts and could be anything really. He is a beautifully bred Sea The Stars colt out of a Kingmambo dam. Winner of the King George V Stakes at Royal Ascot, he was struck into during the race and had to be put away for a while before coming back to win the Geoffrey Freer. He looked impressive there and the injury could possibly be the reason he didn’t go for a more recognised St Leger trial. Still, he will be difficult to work out because of that and is a bit short in the market on what he’s achieved so far.

Santiago

When Aidan O’Brien wins the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot, it’s worth putting the horse into your St Leger tracker. Already proven over the distance from a trainer who excels with these types of horses, you can be sure he will have a great chance on Saturday. If that form isn’t enough, he went to the Curragh next time out and showed a lot of pace to win the Irish Derby. Furthermore, they thought him good enough to take on Stradivarius in the Goodwood Cup over 2 miles. He could only finish 3rd, but what he has achieved this season marks him down as a very exciting horse for next year when he will possibly go for all the big staying races.

We know he stays and we know he also has enough pace to win a Derby. He appears to have the perfect profile to win the St Leger. Another beautifully bred colt, out of Epsom Derby hero Authorized with a pace injection on the dam side with Cape Cross. There really isn’t much not to like.

It boils down to whether you trust a horse like Pyledriver or Hukum in a Classic or whether you go the tried and tested route with Aidan O’Brien.

Ultimately, it means looking at the prices and I can’t understand why Santiago is trading as big at 3/1. So he’s my selection. It would be a fascinating victory, as Ballydoyle number 1 rider, Ryan Moore will stay in Ireland for Irish Champions weekend. That means none other than Frankie Dettori is likely to take the ride. Frankie Dettori winning a Classic for Ballydoyle? A fitting result for this strange 2020 season I’d say.

St Leger Stakes Shortlist

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St Leger Stakes 2020

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2020 St Leger Stakes Betting

2020 William Hill St Leger Stakes Odds*

2020 St Leger Betting*, St Leger 2020 Betting*, 2020 St Leger Favourite*

*Odds correct as of 11 September 2020, 12:01. Odds are subject to change. For Full Market Odds See Betting Site. Our odds may be several days old and are reproduced to give you an indication of the betting market.

2020 St Leger Tips*

Although Santiago came third in this years Goodwood Cup back in July the shorter 1m6f of the St Leger should suit better. And in the hands of Frankie Dettori is the horse to beat. 2020 St Leger Tip: Santiago.

*Odds correct as of 11 September 2020, 12:01. Odds are subject to change. For Full Market Odds See Betting Site. Our odds may be several days old and are reproduced to give you an indication of the betting market.

2020 William Hill St Leger Stakes

The St Leger Stakes is a Group 1 flat horse race held on Day 4 of the St leger Festival (a Saturday) and is run at Doncaster over a distance of 1-mile, 6 furlongs and 115 yards (2,921 metres). The St leger Festival is scheduled to take place each year in September.

The St Leger Stakes was established in 1776, the St Leger Stakes is the oldest of Britain’s five Classics. It is the last of the five to be run each year, and its distance is longer than any of the other four.

St Leger Stakes 2016 Replay

The St Leger Stakes is the final leg of the English Triple Crown, which begins with the 2000 Guineas and continues with the Derby.

The 2020 William Hill St Leger Stakes horse race will be held on Saturday 12 September, 2020.

Previous St Leger Stakes Winners

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2020 St Leger Stakes