Easy Baseball Betting Strategies
- In order to make money betting football and basketball, bettors must win 52.4% of the time (assuming -110 juice) in order to break even. However, if MLB bettors avoid big favorites and consistently take plus-money underdogs (+120, +150, +170) they can win at a sub-50% clip but still finish the year with positive units won.
- Home Field Advantage: Free 55% Underdog System. Run Line Statistics: Beating the Run Line 80% of the time. Home Teams in the Second Game of a Double-Header. Road Teams in the Second Game of a.
The public likes to side with the favorite, but more often than not, value lies in the underdog.
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It can be especially true when handicapping baseball. The extremely long season and countless games without a day off lead to a lot of winning and losing streaks, crucial to track. But years of research have shown that simply picking every high-flying favorite will lead to a bigger loss at the end of the season than if you were to bet every ‘dog.
While gamblers are likely to end up spinning their wheels by betting every ‘dog, there are numerous underdog betting systems that can lead to nice profits. Here’s a look at 4 baseball betting systems for underdogs that I have found to work.
MLB Underdog Wagers – Success under 50%
One thing to keep in mind when choosing ‘dogs is you are less likely to end up with an overall winning record. This is what makes picking the plus-line so popular among baseball bettors. For example, if you bet on 50 ‘dogs with an average money line of (+130), you would have to go just 22-28 (44%) to show a profit.
Chances are with our underdog systems you are more likely to hit 50% of your bets. A $1000 better who went 25-25 on clubs whose lines averaged out at (+130) would be up $7,500! That is just a 50-game sample size, so just imagine how you could clean up over the course of a full season.
Winning Baseball Bet – Underdogs off a Low-Scoring Win
Our low-scoring pick system relies heavily on ‘dogs who just won in a previous day’s outing. Teams who are coming off a win tend to play with more confidence, and there are some handicappers out there who will only bet on a team if they won the previous day.
The key is to not simply pick underdogs who won their previous games, but to locate those who prevailed in their previous game as an underdog by scoring 3 runs or less. Clubs which can succeed as an underdog without a strong offensive performance show they don’t need to score a lot of runs to win games. Teams that fall into this situation are normally strong on defense and have a solid bullpen, which is exactly what you are looking for.
Since 2004 my system is 556-667, which doesn’t sound that great, however, with an average line of (+138.9) wagering on every club in this situation would have resulted in a return on investment (ROI) of +7.6%. This means if you’d have wagered $100 on each ballgame over that time period you would be up $9,258.
Money Line Betting on MLB Divisional Play
With this system, you are looking for teams who won in their previous game and are facing a team within their division. Because teams play so many more games against teams in their division, there is a greater chance that the ‘dog will win the game than if they were playing a club outside of their division.
Easy Baseball Betting Strategies
More times than not the team with the better starting pitcher on paper will be the team favored. The reason that you go against these pitchers is the fact that they have likely faced a given team within their division numerous times, and the more opposing players face a pitcher the more likely the hitters will eventually succeed.
There are a ton of games that fall under this umbrella each year. In fact, since 2004 the record for this system is a whopping 2114-2635 for an ROI of +3.3%. Because there are so many opportunities, putting $100 on each game (with average odds of +135.4) in this situation would have earned you an impressive $15,807.
Stoffo’s Rules for Picking Major League Baseball Underdogs
A few of Tony Stoffo’s underdog betting tips from Vegas Insider:
1) The first thing you want to do is pull up the odds for a given day and eliminate any games in which a team is listed at above (+150). More often when a team is listed at (+150) or higher to win a game, there is a pretty good chance the favorite is going to prevail in the game. By eliminating this option, you will save yourself money by avoiding the temptation of gambling on huge ‘dogs.
2) Next, eliminate any underdogs who have lost 3 or more games in a row heading into the game, or any underdog who is facing a favorite which has a winning streak of 3 or more in a row. This allows you to avoid getting caught up on a ‘dog who isn’t playing very well or going up against a favorite who is red hot.
3) Finally, eliminate any team that is facing one of the top 20 pitchers. The top pitchers in the game will prevail more times than not, and avoiding going up against these aces is a smart play. While many websites will rank pitchers, the one that has been of the most value for this system is Jeff Sagarin’s Ratings of USA today.
4) Place your bets on the clubs remaining. You want to place the same wager on each bet. Tony suggests placing between 1.25 – 2.50% of your bankroll on each play.
There are four baseball betting strategies that you are going to want to employ if your serious about winning at baseball betting:
1. Picking Winners
2. Pricing
3. Bankroll management
4. Record keeping
Picking Winners: Almost everybody I know thought baseball betting was easy to conquer the first time they looked at the odds. This is of course because there is no point spread to beat so naturally their first reaction was to be biased and lean towards picking the better team. Needless to say, they were rudely introduced to the silent but deadly bankroll killer, THE MONEYLINE.
We all did it, me included. Hey, Roger Clemens is taking the hill against Glendon Rusch the biggest gas can in the league? -200? Lay it! Bam, Rusch has his best outing of the year and I’m down -2.00 units right out of the game. It doesn’t take a mathematician to figure out that -2.00 means that we are now playing from behind and have to win 2 games just to break even.
The point of the story is picking winners is easy. Beating the odds is not. More times than not, the -200 favorite will win a game like that. The problem is every time the much favored pitcher doesn’t, your put in a hole.
Stick to low priced favorites or better yet only bet on underdogs. A strategy of betting only on underdogs gives you an opportunity to win 50% of the time or less and turn a profit as the moneyline becomes your friend, not your enemy. We’d also like to say that there is no substitute for hard work/good handicapping.
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Pricing: When you go to the grocery store, you undoubtedly price shop and compare items. If you don’t, your wasting money. Betting on bases is no different. If your looking at getting down on a game, you should compare prices at a handful of sportsbooks (See our recommended list at the top of this page) to make sure your getting the most bang for your buck. Not all sportsbooks are created equal. Prices can and will vary. We highly recommend that you have money deposited at “at least” three different places. We also recommend that these be dimeline sportsbooks to make “doubley” sure that your getting the best value. (Dimeline books are defined in the article, click it and read it but don’t forget to come back here, we’re not done with you yet!)
Bankroll Management: Nobody wants to hear it, very few practice it, yet not surprisingly very few win at sports betting long term. Take the hint as the sooner you apply it to your strategic approach the sooner you have a real chance at breaking even or winning. Just like life, you can’t get paid on Friday and blow all your loot on Saturday. You have to stretch it out and make it last spending a little more during the good times (winning streaks) and a little less during the bad times (losing streaks.) With that being said, never deviate from betting no more than 2% of your bankroll on any one game. Hmm, lets see, if your “roll” is $500 that means your maximum bet is a boring $10. Yes, we know, how BORING. Welcome to winning at gambling, a marathon not a sprint. If your not serious about winning ignore this advice. When you get tired of losing come back here and listen a little closer. You can put it together any way you want, but when it doesn’t run correctly rest assured that you can come right back here, read the directions and make it right again. We all didn’t listen in the beginning and we all lost for years before we even got a sniff of learning how to win. It’s ok, don’t be embarrassed. Just be glad that you figured it out AT SOME POINT as many never do!
Record Keeping: Uh oh, more BORING stuff. (And you thought this was all going to be exciting) Ya gotta do it fellas. Right down to the bare bones. Grab yourself a piece of paper. Start with “favorites” and keep a tally (record including win/loss and units won or lost) for each 10 cents of the moneyline. Do this for underdogs too. Example:
Favorites:
-100 to -109
-110 to -119
-120 to -129 and so on…
Also keep a win loss for overs/unders and runlines as well if you play them. The purpose of doing so is that after a while you will see what your strong points are and where your weaknesses lay. Once you’ve made a couple hundred plays, our recipe calls for a little more sugar and a lot less fat. Consider sticking to what works and eliminating what is NOT working for you.
We hope you’ve enjoyed this article on strategies that will help you win at baseball betting. If you’ve got any questions about gambling on baseball or any sport for that matter, feel free to click the contact us link below and drop us a line. We’re usually pretty good about getting back to people within 48 hours or less. Good luck on the bases!
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